Distinguished Economist Spots the Lodestar in China’s Economy

Wars and conflicts have erupted across nations. Grappling with a complex web of challenges emanating from global and domestic uncertainties, China’s economy stands at a crossroads. How will it navigate these obstacles in the face of cut-throat competition?

In collaboration with the Youth of Guangzhou and Hong Kong Association, the College of Liberal Arts and Social Sciences of City University of Hong Kong (CityUHK) invited an esteemed economist, Professor Justin LIN Yifu, to deliver a public lecture titled “How to understand the opportunities and challenges in mainland China” on 9 September 2023. Drawing an audience of over 500 students, faculty members and guests, the seminar brimmed with insightful perspectives and thought-provoking discussions.

Setting the stage for the captivating lecture was Professor Jennifer LIN Fen, Associate Vice-President (Global Strategy) and Associate Professor in the Department of Media and Communication at CityUHK. With great enthusiasm, she first welcomed and introduced the keynote speaker.

Lin is a member of the Standing Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) National Committee and vice-chairman of the Committee on Economic Affairs of the CPPCC National Committee, focusing on development policy, agriculture and poverty in China and abroad. In 2008, he made history by becoming the first individual from a developing country to assume the position of Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank. After his tenure at the World Bank, he returned to Peking University, where he contributed to higher education and academic research.

Lin has maintained a long-standing collaboration with CityUHK and was awarded an Honorary Doctor of Social Science degree by the University in 2009.

Conflicts Pose Challenges
Lin then took to the stage and brought his astute observations and expertise to the audience. The very first question one would raise was: How did China manage to distinguish itself economically?

Karl MARX once preached his belief that history repeats itself. Lin thus drew parallels between the long-standing dominance of the Group of Eight (G8) in global economic affairs and the characteristics observed during the era of the Eight-Nation Alliance a century ago. This prevailing status quo remained unshaken throughout the last century.

Yet, the dynamics shifted following the global financial crisis in 2008 as a new key player came: China. According to Lin, the nation’s rapid economic growth altered the global order. One of the many far-reaching impacts was the recalibration of Sino-American relations, which was a significant hurdle to China’s ongoing economic development.

The speaker then unpacked the tension between two mighty nations. “The outbreak of a war between China and the United States would pose challenges to the entire world, constituting an unprecedented global paradigm shift,” he remarked.

The Silver Lining
While identifying China’s current predicaments in the global economy and within its society, the speaker also presented a promising forecast for future opportunities as the silver lining. Lin noticed that China is realising its potential in developing innovative technologies. It will consequently drive growth in high-value-added sectors and facilitate the transformation into a digital society.

With a compelling blend of business acumen and political insight, Lin also supported his analysis with a data-driven approach. He skilfully interpreted key indicators such as GDP per capita and unemployment rate, spelling out their implications for the mighty nations.

“As the world watches with bated breath, China’s economic trajectory is poised to shape not only its future but also the international economy at large,” said Lin, concluding the importance of the Chinese market to economic stability worldwide.

Gloom or Bloom
The seminar later reached its culmination with an engaging dialogue facilitated by Professor Linda LI Chelan, Director of CityUHK’s Research Centre for Sustainable Hong Kong and Professor of Department of Public and International Affairs, and Professor Isabel YAN Kit-ming, CityUHK’s Associate Provost (Student Life) and Associate Professor of Department of Economics and Finance. Alongside Lin, the moderators guided a discussion and Q&A session, in which the participants eagerly seized the opportunity to delve into the complex issues at hand.

Lin offered valuable recommendations when asked about the increasing youth unemployment rate and shortage of skilled labour in China. He suggested government officials implement policies to promote investment and instil confidence among consumers and private enterprises. He was optimistic that the youth unemployment rate would show improvement by the end of 2023.

As the discussion wound down, it was not difficult to realise that opportunities and challenges are two sides of the same coin. The insightful seminar indeed left the audience inspired and better equipped to navigate the ever-changing economy.